Global Shipping Markets Remain Shaped by Structural Disruptions
Global shipping markets continue to be influenced by significant structural disruptions. The EU ban on Russian oil imports and ongoing Suez Canal diversions are extending voyage distances and tightening vessel supply. These developments provide strong support for current freight rates, with the market facing added complexity from a substantial shadow fleet transporting sanctioned crude and products from Russia, Iran, and Venezuela.
Tankers
The tanker market is experiencing significant ton-mile demand due to geopolitical disruptions driving longer-haul trades. The EU sanctions on Russian crude have led to a shift in supply chains, with Europe now relying on Middle East, US, and Latin American crude, resulting in extended voyage distances. Peak oil demand headwinds are emerging as transportation fuel demand faces pressure from engine efficiency improvements, electrification trends, fuel switching initiatives, and structural changes.
The tanker fleet is expected to expand, potentially creating downward pressure on utilisation rates after 2025. However, newbuilding activity has declined sharply, with year-to-date contracting volumes down 55% compared to 2024 levels. China remains a critical demand anchor for the tanker market, with its continued oil import appetite fundamental to market health.
Bulkers
The bulker market is currently in healthy balance after years of low fleet growth paired with steady demand. Strong freight rates throughout the year are expected to continue despite global economic uncertainty and subdued demand growth. Ton-mile demand is rising despite volume declines, driven by longer-haul trades and ongoing Red Sea diversions.
China’s steel sector faces structural challenges, with a real estate slowdown continuing to weigh on domestic steel demand. The country’s iron ore imports are declining year-to-date, while steel export growth faces emerging obstacles from anti-dumping investigations and trading partner tariffs. Decarbonisation efforts are driving strong demand for minor bulk commodities like bauxite, supporting the China-Guinea trade.
Containers
Container TEU-mile demand growth is expected to reach only 2.4% in 2025, followed by an average of 3% between 2026-2028. US import tariffs are dampening growth, and limited upside potential from Red Sea diversions as the extra sailing distances are already factored into current freight rates. The container market is expected to remain muted, with no significant catalysts driving demand growth in the short term.
Gas
The gas market is experiencing a surge in demand due to the ongoing energy crisis. The increase in liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports has driven up demand for gas carriers, supporting strong freight rates. However, the market faces challenges from the growing use of alternative fuels and the potential for reduced demand as energy efficiency improves.
In conclusion, the global shipping markets are expected to remain shaped by structural disruptions in the coming quarters. The tanker market is experiencing significant ton-mile demand due to geopolitical disruptions, while the bulker market is in healthy balance. The container market is expected to remain muted, and the gas market is experiencing a surge in demand due to the ongoing energy crisis.
Original Article: Veson Nautical Shipping Market Outlook: Q4 2025 forecast — Ajot