Russia’s Shadow Fleet Is a Growing Threat in the Baltic Sea
As Russia exports record levels of crude oil through its so-called “Shadow Fleet,” consisting of poorly insured, improperly maintained, ships and operating in violation of international maritime law. As a result, security concerns in the Baltic Sea are rising. Could the fleet be restricted—or even blocked—from operating there?
The percentage of Russian oil that was transported by the shadow tanker fleet is high. It varies between 60% (Brookings’ estimate) to 80% (S&P’s estimate). The fleet has potentially over 1200 vessels, either controlled by Russia, allies like Iran or China, or independent states, but often bearing false registrations, flags, and improper insurance. Official shipping via the Russian state shipping company Sovcomflot in 2025, becoming no longer profitable, at the same time.
Baltic Sea Concerns
Nowhere is this system more visible than in the Baltic Sea. By early 2026, nearly half of the crude leaving Russia’s Baltic ports was transported by sanctioned vessels, pushing exports through the region to record levels. Fires and sudden damage to undersea infrastructure indicate that the Shadow Fleet is also becoming a security threat in one of Europe’s most strategically sensitive seas.
Russia exports crude oil considerably more from Baltic ports than from others, and the number is increasing. Illustration: UNITED24 Media
Experts Weigh In
We spoke to two experts: Meelis Oidsalu, former Estonian Defense Minister and security expert, and Julian Pawlak, Senior Associate at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs.
They discussed the rise of Russia’s “Shadow Fleet” in the Baltic Sea, the challenges in tackling it, the legal challenges it poses, and the threats it poses to European security. They also assessed whether a blockade would be feasible and what other options Europe may have to address the problem.
Major Concerns
“Shadow Fleet is a main instrument to continuously generate income via exporting and selling crude oil, oil products, and other goods,” says Pawlak. “Russia is able to circumvent sanctions and continue its war efforts against Ukraine.” Then, there is a matter of the tankers themselves. Pawlak explained:
The vessels used are often old, of bad maintenance, not sufficiently insured, and part of opaque ownership structures…They represent floating environmental risks: an accident with an oil tanker in the small Baltic Sea would have immense environmental consequences. Julian Pawlak Senior Associate at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs
Russia deliberately buys older ships, at a lower cost, and their average age is 40 years old.
Thirdly, the direct threat. “These vessels can be used to conduct espionage and sabotage under the guise of freedom of navigation,” Pawlak says.
European Governments’ Response
“When Germany made a rare move on January 10 and blocked the entrance of the ‘zombie tanker’ Tavian to the Baltic Sea, that was actually initiated by Greenpeace,” says Oidsalu. “Baltic Sea governments do not pull their weight when it comes to environmental protection in the Baltic. That applies sadly to sanctions evasion and seabed infrastructure protection.”
The consequences, he notes, can be costly. Estonia alone has suffered at least €200 million ($232 million) in damage from incidents related to the Shadow Fleet.
Original Article: Russia’s Shadow Fleet Is a Growing Threat in the Baltic Sea. Can Europe Stop It? — United24Media