Russian Oil Tracker – May 2026: US-sanctioned Rosneft and Lukoil regain control over exports as their share rises to 57%
In April 2026, Russian seaborne crude oil exports increased by 3.9% MoM and by 0.1% YoY, according to the May edition of the Russian Oil Tracker by KSE Institute. Tankers with International Group (IG) P&I insurance coverage shipped 25% of crude and 71% of oil products.
US-Designated Producers Regain Control
In the first half of May, US-designated producers Rosneft, Lukoil, Gazpromneft, and Surgutneftegaz restored their share in crude oil exports to 57%, following a decline to 4–8% in January–March 2026. Over the same period, the share of UAE-based companies Redwood Global Supply FZE LLC and Alghaf Marine DMCC in Russian crude oil exports dropped to 0%, from 30% in April 2026.
Shadow Fleet Remains Key Instrument
The shadow fleet remains a key instrument for Russian oil exports. KSE Institute estimates 192 shadow fleet tankers carrying crude and oil products left Russian ports or were involved in STS transfers in April 2026, with 92% of them older than 15 years. The share of sanctioned tanker-days increased from 15% in July 2025 to 31% in April 2026, while the corresponding share for US-designated tankers reached 26%, driven by the return of previously idle tankers to commercial service.
Global Market Developments
In Q1–Q2 2026, the UAE-based Greenlight Shipmanagement FZE received five former Sovcomflot vessels from Nova Shipmanagement LLC-FZ (UAE) and entered the list of the top 10 ship managers by volume in April 2026. The company now operates six former tankers of the sanctioned Sovcomflot.
Average Urals FOB prices increased by ~$21/bbl MoM to ~$96/bbl in April, exceeding ESPO FOB Kozmino for the first time and trading well above the EU’s revised price cap. ESPO FOB Kozmino increased by ~$7/bbl to ~$93/bbl. Prices for Russian diesel and gasoil rose to ~$158/bbl and ~$145/bbl respectively, while the price of fuel oil decreased by $9/bbl to $52/bbl and naphtha increased by $9/bbl to $70/bbl.
Outlook
According to KSE Institute estimates, the Middle East conflict has prompted a revision of Russia’s oil revenue outlook. In the base case – current price caps, sanctions status quo, and a conflict lasting up to three months – revenues could increase from $158 billion in 2025 to $208 billion in 2026. Under the optimistic scenario, with increasing sanctions pressure on Russian oil, revenues are expected to increase to only $184 billion in 2026. In the most adverse scenario – weak sanctions enforcement – revenues could reach $214 billion in 2026.
Original Article: Russian Oil Tracker – May 2026: US-sanctioned Rosneft and Lukoil regain control over exports as their share rises to 57% — Kse