Strait of Hormuz Traffic Plummets
Vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has fallen sharply this week even as markets closely watch Iran-Oman talks on a potential management framework for the waterway. At the same time, Houthi threats continue to constrain Red Sea routes, recent attacks have kept insurance and freight costs elevated, and Saudi Arabia is deepening discounts on crude sales to Asia. Oil prices remain volatile in the low-to-mid $80s for Brent, with analysts divided on the path ahead depending on whether flows normalize.
Shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz dwindled to just 33 vessels from Monday to Thursday this week, compared with 50 in the prior week period, according to Kpler data cited by Reuters. On Thursday, only four vessels transited, including one very large crude carrier (Nissos Kea) carrying about 2 million barrels of Iraqi Basrah crude. Just six crude oil tankers have exited the strait so far this week, while 21 vessels entered—mostly via the Iranian-controlled northern route.
Pre-conflict norms saw roughly 130–140 vessels per day. Current volumes remain a fraction of that, with many operators reluctant to enter amid ongoing risks of attacks, mines, and insurance restrictions. Some Chinese and Indian refiners have sought tankers for discounted Iraqi barrels at Basrah, but few fixtures have materialized due to owner caution.
Red Sea Traffic Status and Recent Attacks
Red Sea / Bab el-Mandeb traffic has partially stabilized after a sharp drop following the mid-July Houthi blockade declaration targeting Saudi-linked shipping, but volumes remain well below normal. Commodity vessel transits fell by around 24% initially; tanker flows hit multi-month lows, with many operators using dark AIS (transponders off), rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope (adding ~25 days), or shifting to Suez/SUMED pipeline options and Yanbu loadings.
On Thursday (August 6), Bab el-Mandeb recorded 26 vessel transits (up from 19 the prior day; LSEG counted 28), showing some recovery as shipowners adapt. Saudi crude continues to move via Yanbu and alternative routes, though at higher cost and with delayed deliveries.
New attacks in the last 48–72 hours underscore persistent risks:
August 5: Houthis claimed a ballistic-missile strike on the Saudi-flagged products tanker NCC WAFA off Yanbu in the northern Red Sea (the eighth Saudi-linked tanker targeted since the blockade; independent confirmation limited).
August 5: UKMTO reported a tanker hearing two explosions near the Strait of Hormuz approaches; the vessel aborted transit with crew safe and no damage confirmed.
August 4: India-flagged cargo vessel Faize Noore Oliya struck by an explosives-laden boat ~13 nm south of Al Hudaydah, Yemen; the vessel sank, all 14 crew rescued.
August 4: Liberia-flagged bulk carrier Minoan Pioneer struck by an unidentified projectile ~20 nm northeast of Khasab, Oman (Hormuz vicinity); engine-room issues reported and one seafarer unaccounted for.
Earlier late-July and early-August incidents (including an LNG carrier hit exiting Hormuz) have kept threat levels elevated.
Iran-Oman Framework: Control That “Won’t Fly”
Iran and Oman are advancing a proposed arrangement for shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz. Details emerging include temporary corridors (initially 1–3 or 2–4 months), with inbound and outbound lanes partly through Iranian waters near Larak Island, a joint coordination center, and Iran retaining primary roles in security, de-mining, and maritime services. Temporary routes near Iran and through Omani waters would adjust from the long-standing Omani-waters preference. Iran frames this as establishing “Iranian arrangements” and dominance, while seeking additional U.S. concessions (lifting the naval blockade on Iranian ports, sanctions relief, etc.) before full reopening.
President Donald Trump has repeatedly rejected any framework that grants Iran (or Oman) effective control. He has stated the strait is international waters, emphasizing the need for a comprehensive agreement ensuring freedom of navigation and security for all nations.
Original Article: Shipping through Hormuz Drops, Tensions Mount: Where Do Oil Prices Go? — Energynewsbeat