Washington Says the Oil Is Still Moving Through Hormuz — and Its Own Explanation Is That the Tankers Are Hiding
The Trump administration official said that ships are passing through the strait with their AIS transponders off, meaning that they cannot be reliably tracked – and while the claims hold up, they are still not providing the confidence that shipping companies and insurers need to return to business as usual in one of the world’s most important energy chokepoints.
“Almost all of these ships have their AIS transponders off so they are dark,” Wright told Fox News on Friday. “In round numbers today, 14 to 15 million barrels a day are leaving the Arabian Gulf region versus the 20 million barrels a day pre-conflict.
So we’re short 5 or 6 million barrels a day from this region, but it’s a much smaller hole than people think it is.”
Wright said around 8 million to 9 million barrels per day are physically passing through the Strait of Hormuz, then explained how he arrived at the 15 million figure that was recently criticized by analysts, noting that another 6 million barrels per day leave the region through pipelines that bypass the strait.
Ship Trackers Show Something Different
Kpler data published Friday showed that only nine commodity vessels crossed Hormuz on Thursday, up from five on Wednesday and below an August average of 12 per day.
Before the war, more than 100 vessels routinely crossed the strait each day. Most of Thursday’s vessels also traveled through the Iranian route rather than the U.S.-backed route closer to Oman.
That’s hard to reconcile with repeated claims by U.S. President Donald Trump that the United States has “total control” over Hormuz.
What It Means When A Ship Goes “Dark”
The technology that Wright referred to during the interview is the Automatic Identification System, or AIS.
AIS is a continuously broadcast digital identification system.
Equipment aboard a ship automatically transmits information that can include the vessel’s identity, position, course, speed, and direction.
Other ships and shore stations receive those transmissions, allowing vessels to identify and track one another even when visibility is poor.
That system primarily communicates over two dedicated VHF radio channels, with conventional ship-to-ship AIS reception typically extending around 20 to 30 nautical miles, depending on factors like antenna height.
Coastal receivers and satellites can expand the area over which transmissions are collected.
Under normal circumstances, and indeed under International Maritime Organization (IMO) rules, AIS is mandatory for ships of 300 gross tons or more engaged in international voyages and for cargo ships of at least 500 gross tons on domestic voyages.
Passenger ships must also use AIS regardless of their size. But under the extraordinary circumstances in the Strait of Hormuz, the rules are being skirted.
So when ships turn off their AIS, commercial maritime intelligence companies can’t build full, detailed maps of global shipping. Those ships effectively disappear from the picture when they switch the systems off.
Why Switch AIS Off?
Ordinarily, ships required to carry AIS are expected to keep it operating while traveling, but a security exception applies in the ongoing circumstances in the Strait of Hormuz.
Original Article: Washington Says the Oil Is Still Moving Through Hormuz — and Its Own Explanation Is That the Tankers Are Hiding — Nationalsecurityjournal