Prolonged Conflict Escalates into Maritime Tit-for-Tat
The Ukraine war has turned into a prolonged conflict defined by escalation. Both sides appear to have adapted to a dual reality: a grinding war of attrition on the ground, coupled with a tit-for-tat dynamic of continuous escalation. Ordinarily, such a prolonged conflict would pose severe challenges for Kyiv, given the stark asymmetry in military capabilities between Russia and Ukraine. Yet, Western, particularly European, support has compensated for Ukrainian vulnerabilities in the face of conventional Russian power. Crucially, despite repeated Russian use of the nuclear threat, the conflict has remained within conventional bounds.
Calculated Restraint
Early in the war, Moscow endorsed a remarkably strict nuclear doctrine that significantly lowered the threshold for use of nuclear weapons. Yet to date, Russia has exercised notable restraint despite deep strikes executed by Ukrainian forces inside Russian territory. This restraint could be explained by the calculation of Kremlin strategists that the costs of a prolonged campaign were manageable, believing Moscow could sustain a war economy through internal resources and energy exports while securing ultimate victory.
Shifting Calculus
That calculus is now shifting. The prolongation of hostilities introduces mounting strategic risks for the Kremlin, driven by two primary factors. First, Kyiv continues to bolster its operational capabilities through sustained Western assistance and hard-won tactical expertise. Second, the multifaceted economic warfare waged by Ukraine and its allies is severely squeezing Russia’s economic sphere of maneuver.
War against Shadow Fleet
This economic campaign is broad and aggressive. Ukrainian strikes have targeted Russian commercial assets, such as Wildberries’ warehouses, while Kyiv has actively targeted merchant vessels in the Black Sea suspected of belonging to Moscow’s “shadow fleet.” However, because Russia’s economic footprint is global, the most potent lever of this economic campaign remains Western sanctions.
European Sanctions and Maritime Enforcement
Although the record of U.S. sanctions displays notable inconsistencies, the European Union and the United Kingdom have increasingly assumed economic deterrence against Moscow. On July 23, Brussels unveiled its 21st sanctions package, introducing energy-related price caps, restrictions on Russian oil transactions, and transport bans on Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG). Notably, the package granted an exemption allowing Greek vessels to continue transporting Arctic-sourced Russian LNG, which was widely criticized as a double standard, given the package’s explicit aim to curtail shadow fleet operations.
Original Article: Maritime tit-for-tat: New front of Russo-Ukrainian war — Dailysabah