Trump’s Provocative Posturing Tests Claims of Strait Control
The tit-for-tat between Trump and Iran is not over: After Tehran struck in response to the latest U.S. attack, itself carried out after an earlier Iranian attack and following a chain of retaliatory exchanges, the ball once again appears to be in the court of U.S. President Donald Trump. Trump has already threatened another response, at an even higher level than the extensive U.S. strikes carried out Tuesday. For now, however, he is signaling that he would rather bring the latest round of fighting to an end, and another American strike has yet to come.
Strait of Hormuz Control: A Central Dispute
Behind the trolling lies the central dispute driving the renewed escalation: control of the Strait of Hormuz, the oil artery of the global economy. That dispute helped bring down the June memorandum of understanding between Washington and Tehran. Iran refuses to surrender what has become one of its most important strategic levers, one it increasingly treats as being nearly as important as its nuclear program.
Trump’s Strategy: Pressure on Iran, Oil Flow
The objective is clear. Trump would prefer, at least until November’s midterm elections, to avoid returning to intensive warfare with Iran, which would almost certainly send oil prices higher and could hurt Republicans’ chances of retaining control of Congress. At the same time, while maintaining pressure on Iran, Washington wants oil from the Persian Gulf to continue reaching the global economy, helping bring down prices that remain elevated even after falling from their wartime peak.
Iranian Strategy: Escalation in Response
Iran’s strategy in response is equally clear. Tehran had threatened escalation if the blockade continued, as its domestic economic crisis deepened, and is now acting on that threat. Several Iranian attacks on oil tankers crossing the strait without Tehran’s approval preceded the U.S. strike Sunday evening that ignited the latest round. The U.S. military said that strike was intended to thwart an Iranian attempt to deploy sea mines from Larak Island in the strait.
Tanker Attacks and Casualties
During the escalation, two tankers carrying a combined 4 million barrels of Saudi crude were attacked overnight between Monday and Tuesday. Two Filipino sailors were killed aboard one of the vessels. Transponders go dark, and satellites cannot see everything, making it difficult to track the exact number of tankers crossing the strait.
Trump’s Provocative Post
Trump himself has repeatedly described the U.S. position in Hormuz in sweeping terms. On Tuesday night, he wrote that he preferred the current situation, with what he called “almost total control of the Hormuz Strait” and Iran’s economy “totally collapsing.”
Original Article: Crossing Hormuz in the dark: The secret oil operation testing Trump’s claims — Ynetnews