Iran Escalates Before U.S. Midterm Elections
Iran is attacking ships more frequently than at any point in the war, just as President Donald Trump has ruled out U.S. strikes on Iran before the midterm elections. Iran’s escalation threatens to undermine a U.S. naval campaign that had largely broken Iran’s attempt to close the Strait of Hormuz while restoring Gulf crude exports to prewar levels.
Weeks of U.S. strikes in July produced a lull in Iranian attacks on shipping, but a single day of U.S. strikes on roughly 100 Iranian coastal targets on September 1 failed to produce a similar decrease. Instead, Iran’s strikes on commercial vessels rose in the weeks that followed, showing that one round of bombing could not suppress Iran’s capacity to mount attacks or to reconstitute lost capacity.
U.S. Operations Blunted Iran’s Attempted Closure of Hormuz
U.S. naval operations have turned Iran’s attempt to blockade Gulf shipping against Iran itself. U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) has cleared mines from the strait’s main shipping lanes, and U.S. military escorts have accompanied vessels that Iran continues to threaten. Those escorts have used a southern corridor along Oman’s coast, which lets tankers avoid the northern lanes through Iranian waters that Iran has demanded all ships use.
Smaller tankers have carried crude through the corridor, reportedly in nighttime convoys covered by U.S. helicopters, fighter jets, and surface drones. CENTCOM reported that thousands of commercial ships had passed safely through the cleared lanes. By securing the route through the strait, U.S. forces kept Gulf exports moving despite Iran’s campaign against shipping.
Threats to Shipping Continue
Iran has pushed its campaign beyond the Hormuz corridor, and two ships it struck have sunk. Trump’s October 8 pledge not to attack Iran before the November 3 midterm elections has removed the threat of U.S. strikes on those coastal forces and given Iran more time to rebuild before potentially facing them again.
To bolster deterrence and protect the gains of its naval campaign, the United States should strike Iranian assets along the coast if attacks on shipping continue, target the small boats Iran has used to identify commercial ship locations, extend naval protection to ships further inside the Gulf, alternate and relocate tanker transfer points away from Iran, continuously monitor Iran’s coastal radar, missile battery, and small-boat capabilities, strike any attempt to rebuild them, and publicly warn that further attacks will bring a forceful U.S. response.
The U.S. blockade has cut Iran out of the trade moving through the strait it claims to control. CENTCOM has redirected 138 commercial vessels since resuming the blockade on July 14, disabled four that refused to comply, and destroyed 10 that violated the blockade or belonged to Iran-linked shipping networks over the past 12 weeks. The most recent came two days after Trump pledged on October 8 not to attack Iran before the midterm elections, when a U.S. fighter jet disabled the cargo ship Ocean Molica in the Gulf.
Original Article: Iran Escalates Before U.S. Midterm Elections — Jinsa