Estonia’s Navy Confronts Russia’s Shadow Fleet
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On September 19th, as Russian MiG-31 jets violated Estonian airspace, your correspondent was with Estonia’s navy at its base in Tallinn, the NATO member’s capital. Its naval force is on the front lines of a push to confront the world’s shadow fleet—ships that conceal themselves or their identities. The number of such vessels has soared from 200 in 2022 to about a thousand today. Some are busting sanctions by smuggling Russian oil. Others are suspected of spying and sabotage across northern Europe.
The list of worrying maritime incidents is piling up. Police are investigating whether Russia-linked shadowy vessels were connected to drone incursions that have shut down several airports in Denmark since September 22nd. On September 28th Germany deployed a frigate to Copenhagen as part of the NATO response. Earlier that month Germany detained a Russian-crewed vessel in the Kiel Canal on suspicion of launching drones to spy on critical infrastructure.
Commodore Värk’s Concerns
Few people understand Russia’s shadow fleet as well as Ivo Värk, the commander of the Estonian navy. It often tracks dozens of shadow vessels passing through the Gulf of Finland on their way to and from Russia every day. But when it comes to halting illicit tankers that do not pose a direct threat to Estonia, “There’s not much we can do,” commodore Värk admits.
One sailor describes the Estonian navy’s struggle to halt Russian oil tankers using patrol and mine-warfare boats as being “like smaller dogs trying to get to the big dog.” Earlier this year the Estonian navy tried to detain the Jaguar, a tanker subject to sanctions and sailing without a national flag, as it was heading towards Russia. The Estonian navy ordered it to halt, but was then forced to break off its pursuit after Russia launched fighter jets into Estonia’s airspace to protect the ship. Commodore Värk says the Kremlin was sending a message with the jets: Russia’s shadow fleet is a “critical national interest” to be protected at all costs.
The Shadow Fleet’s Global Reach
Though much of the focus is on Russia’s shadow fleet, North Korea was the “original gangster of deceptive shipping practices,” says Michelle Bockmann of Windward, a maritime-intelligence firm. It pioneered the tactic of “going dark” by turning off automatic identifier signals that broadcast a ship’s whereabouts, and transferring shipments between vessels at sea rather than at ports. Iran and Venezuela used similar tactics to evade sanctions. The practice has significantly escalated after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, says Ms. Bockmann.
Today shadow vessels make up 19% of the global oil-tanker fleet, according to S&P Global, a data and analysis firm. Much of that growth comes from a pool of nearly 200 “flexible” ships, which service more than one country under sanctions (see chart).
The Baltic Sea‘s Shadowy Vessels
In the Baltic Sea, tankers are the most common shadow ships. In the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea, China sometimes uses smaller vessels, including fishing boats and tugs. The global shadow fleet is hard to pin down because it is, well, shadowy. Often vessels are not directly controlled by governments, but by networks run by opportunists hoping to exploit weak maritime governance for profit, says Margaux Garcia of C4ADS, a research group in Washington.
The networks include owners, usually shell companies in opaque jurisdictions whose beneficiaries are hard to identify, as well as middlemen setting up fake-flag registries and insurance documents. Many are not pro-Russia, pro-China or ideologically tied to any country, says Ms. Garcia: “They’re all just people looking for financial gain.”
It has become easier to mask ships’ identities with a proliferation of shell companies and opaque jurisdictions.
Original Article: The flashing red threat from Russia’s dark fleet — Economist