Gulf Oil Exports Remain Below Prewar Levels Despite ‘Dark’ Tanker Crossings
Gulf oil exports have recovered to about 15 million to 16 million barrels per day, roughly two-thirds of prewar levels, despite a growing number of tankers making so-called “dark crossings” of the Strait of Hormuz with their automatic identification systems (AIS) switched off, according to data and analysis reviewed by Reuters. The shortfall remains significant after months of conflict disrupted shipping from major Gulf producers including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates.
The increase in untracked tanker movements has made it harder to determine the true volume of oil leaving the Gulf. Goldman Sachs estimates current Persian Gulf exports at about 15-16 million bpd, compared with approximately 25 million bpd before the war, while conventional vessel-tracking data captures considerably less. The discrepancy has become important for oil traders trying to assess whether physical supplies are recovering or merely appearing stronger because of vessels disappearing from tracking systems.
‘Dark Crossings’ and Oil Tracking Challenges
The term “dark crossing” refers to vessels operating without broadcasting their normal AIS signals. The International Maritime Organization allows ships to switch off AIS when continuous transmission could compromise their safety or security, particularly where an attack threat is imminent. The IMO says such action should normally be recorded and AIS restarted once the danger has passed.
The practice has expanded as commercial vessels seek to navigate waters where attacks, seizures, and military operations have increased. Reuters estimated that clandestine shipments between June and August amounted to roughly 500 million barrels, worth more than $40 billion at prevailing prices. Those movements have helped keep oil reaching international buyers, but they have not restored flows to pre-conflict levels.
Strait of Hormuz: A Critical Energy Chokepoint
The supply gap is particularly significant because the Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most important energy chokepoints. U.S. Energy Information Administration data shows that the waterway carried an average of 20.9 million barrels per day of oil in the first half of 2025, equivalent to about one-fifth of global petroleum liquids consumption.
More recent EIA data shows the scale of the disruption. Oil and petroleum-liquids flows through Hormuz averaged just 4.9 million bpd in the second quarter of 2026, compared with 21.6 million bpd in the fourth quarter of 2025 before the conflict began. The agency based its calculations on Vortexa tanker-tracking data.
Uncertainty and Premiums in Oil Markets
The difference between visible and estimated flows has also complicated the interpretation of oil-price movements. Brent crude recently moved above $100 a barrel, reflecting renewed concern over Gulf supply disruptions even as hidden tanker movements indicate that more oil is reaching the market than conventional tracking suggests. Reuters reported that the market is effectively operating with reduced visibility over one of its most important supply routes.
That uncertainty carries a premium of its own. Traders must account not only for barrels that may be unavailable, but also for the possibility that apparently missing cargoes are moving through untracked or indirect routes. Alternative pipelines and export terminals have helped Gulf producers compensate for some lost Hormuz capacity, but those routes cannot fully replace the waterway.
Long-Term Risks and Maritime Challenges
The situation also carries longer-term maritime risks. The IMO has warned that opaque tanker operations and ship-to-ship transfers can increase risks involving safety, environmental protection, insurance, and liability.
For oil markets, the next major indicators will be tanker movements, AIS activity, physical loading data, and traffic through Hormuz. A sustained recovery in transparent shipping flows would signal improving supply conditions. Conversely, further attacks or restrictions could widen the shortfall and keep crude prices elevated.
Original Article: Gulf Oil Exports remain one-third below Prewar levels despite ‘Dark’ tanker crossings — Businessupturn