Oil Traffic Through Hormuz Goes “Dark” as US Flips Iran’s Playbook
Tankers carrying millions of barrels of Gulf crude are effectively disappearing from public view as they approach the world’s most important oil chokepoint — only to reappear hours later on the other side. About 80 per cent of traffic through Hormuz over the past two weeks has been operating this way, according to shipping analytics firm Kpler.
Tankers are switching off their Automatic Identification System (AIS) transponders and travelling close to Oman, as far from Iran as possible. This “dark” transit is part of a system of nighttime crossings supported by the US military and designed to reduce the danger from Iranian drone attacks.
US-Protected Routes Emerge as New Normal
Gulf oil companies have chartered vessels that shuttle crude through the strait before transferring their cargo to other tankers waiting in the Gulf of Oman. Those vessels then carry the oil onwards to customers around the world. The US Department of Energy estimates oil traffic through the strait has averaged between 8 million and 9 million barrels a day — roughly double what some Wall Street analysts and tracking services relying on transponder data would suggest.
Iran’s “Dark Fleet” Tactics Turned Against Tehran
There is a striking irony to the tactic. For years, Iran has relied on a so-called “dark fleet” — tankers switching off or manipulating tracking signals and using ship-to-ship transfers — to keep its oil moving despite US sanctions. Now, some of those same methods are being turned against Tehran: Gulf oil is moving through Hormuz aboard vessels that disappear from tracking screens before re-emerging beyond the strait, in many cases under US military protection.
Oil Inventories Depleted as War Rages On
Oil inventories have already been depleted by as much as 1.9 billion barrels during the war. If those reserves continue falling, there could eventually come a point when supply can no longer meet demand without substantially higher prices. For now, however, one of the strangest consequences of the Hormuz crisis is also one of the most important.
US Central Command Plays Key Role in Protecting Shipping
US Central Command uses ships, helicopters and aircraft, along with weapons capable of intercepting Iranian drones and missiles. More than 1,000 ships have been helped through the strait, according to Central Command. At least 15 ships using southern routes have been hit since the beginning of June, according to a New York Times analysis of International Maritime Organization data.
Original Article: Great Hormuz escape: 80% of traffic goes ‘dark’ as US flips Iran’s playbook — Gulfnews