The Strait of Hormuz Cannot Simply Be Bypassed
Every major disruption to global energy supply over the past half-century has ultimately traced back to a single geographic reality: a narrow, 33-kilometre-wide corridor at the mouth of the Persian Gulf through which an extraordinary share of the world’s hydrocarbon trade must pass. The Strait of Hormuz is not merely a shipping lane. It is the arterial pressure point of the global economy, and when pressure is applied there, the reverberations reach refineries in South Korea, power stations in Germany, and factory floors in India within weeks.
Understanding what is actually happening to Middle East oil and LNG loadings despite Strait of Hormuz ship attacks requires moving beyond headline price movements and into the operational mechanics of supertanker logistics, LNG supply chain architecture, and the geopolitical calculus that drives producers to keep loading even under active threat.
The Scale of What Flows Through Hormuz Every Day
Under normal operating conditions, the strait processes a remarkably high volume of daily vessel traffic. Shipping data indicated that approximately 84 vessel crossings per day occurred during the 2026 baseline period before the escalation, representing a cross-section of crude oil tankers, LNG carriers, and product vessels serving destinations across Asia, Europe, and beyond.
The commodity volumes at stake span the full spectrum of Gulf energy production:
Crude oil from Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Kuwait, and Iraq
Liquefied natural gas from Qatar and the UAE
Refined petroleum products from GCC refineries
Condensate cargoes tied to Qatar’s gas production
The strait processes approximately one-third of the world’s seaborne oil supply, a figure that illustrates why no escalation in this corridor can be treated as regionally contained. Qatar alone contributes meaningfully to global LNG supply, and when combined with UAE volumes, the region accounts for roughly 20% of total global LNG supply capacity. For context, the LNG supply outlook entering 2025 already pointed to tightening conditions that make any Gulf disruption particularly consequential.
The Bypass Routes That Exist and Their Limitations
Two pipeline bypass options exist for Gulf producers, but neither solves the problem completely:
Saudi Arabia’s Petroline (East-West Pipeline): Can redirect approximately 5 million barrels per day westward to Red Sea export terminals at Yanbu, bypassing the strait entirely. However, this capacity falls well short of Saudi Arabia’s total export capability, and the route does not serve LNG cargoes.
Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline (ADCOP): Provides UAE producers with a bypass route to the port of Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman, sidestepping the strait’s most contested waters. Capacity is approximately 1.5 million barrels per day.
Critically, no LNG bypass route exists for Qatar. Ras Laffan’s position inside the Gulf means every LNG cargo must pass through Hormuz. Furthermore, as detailed by the Crisis Group’s Hormuz analysis, this geographic reality makes Qatar’s export operations uniquely exposed to any sustained closure scenario.
The Traffic Collapse: From 84 Vessels Per Day to a Fraction
Original Article: Middle East Oil and LNG Loadings Continue Despite Hormuz Ship Attacks — Com