Iranian Shadow Fleet and Greek Affiliated Ships Lead Strait of Hormuz Transits
By Lori Ann LaRocco – Recent vessel tracking data details the continued movements of Iranian dark vessels as well as other ships moving through the Strait of Hormuz.
Lloyd’s List Intelligence reports in addition to the Iranian shadow fleet moving post war, Greek affiliated ships are outnumbering the number of vessels traversing the Strait. “The Greek affiliated vessels are loaded with oil within the Middle East Gulf, and now sailing towards the Strait of Hormuz,” explained Bridget Diakun Senior Risk and Compliance Analyst, Lloyd’s List Intelligence. “This is really critical, because if they’re able to go through without incident, this might encourage some other owners and operators to change their calculation and perhaps take the risk of moving. But again, this kind of depends on how things pan out and how long they are left waiting as more time drags on.”
Shadow Fleet Shipments and Greek Affiliated Vessels
Other vessels are linked to the UAE and a couple from China. “There’s been a lot of talk China gets a free pass to go through the Strait of Hormuz,” said Diakun. “It’s not obvious in the data.” Iranian loadings are still underway, and movements of the sanction ships in the shadow fleet show the additional precautions being taken.
Sanctioned Ships and Dark Transits
“Beyond disabling their AIS, we spotted a sanctioned container ship that was coming inbound to the Gulf. It ended up drifting waiting for three or four days before actually making the transit,” she said. Lloyd’s List defines a properly confirmed dark vessel as one that has an official offline and online AIS duration.
At the start of the crisis, Lloyds List said between 40 and 50 ships went offline, mostly in the Middle East Gulf, and some at regional ports. Diakun expects those figures to be revised upwards in the coming days. Nine dark transits have so far been traced by Lloyd’s. About 80 percent of the transits being traced are dark transits.
Kpler Data Reveals Iranian Tanker Activity
“To be confident that a ship was actually transited while dark, you need the ship to come back online,” said Diakun. “So we don’t count anything we might suspect as a dark transit. We do have to get that proper confirmation.” On March 4, an Iranian linked containership and a dark transit of a shadow fleet tanker heading out towards the Gulf of Oman were captured by Lloyd’s List.
Kpler data show the Iranian tankers are in the Gulf and showing no signs of a flight response. The majority of the tankers remain in or around the Strait of Hormuz and UAE/Omani anchorage zones. “Movements suggest caution, low speeds, clustering, some drifting, but not a suspension of activity,” said Dimitris Ampatzidis, Senior Risk & Compliance Analyst at Kpler. “There is no clear sign of widespread unloading inside the Gulf over the last couple of days, which would be atypical for these trades anyway. In general, it’s typical that most Iranian crude discharge happens further east via ship-to-ship transfers or in Asia.”
U.S. Russian Oil Purchases for India
Approximately 44 to 45 transits have gone through the strait since the start of the month, according to Lloyd’s List calculations. That is an approximate decrease of 90 percent in tonnage from normal levels. The decrease in overall vessel transits has made way for a reversal in U.S. Russian oil purchases for India.
In a post on X, U.S. Treasury Scott Bessent announced India which imports around 90 percent of its crude with almost half coming from the Middle East has been granted a waiver to have the ability to buy Russian crude. The decision was made to “enable oil to keep flowing into the global market” and that it will not “provide significant financial benefit to the Russian government.”
Original Article: Iranian Shadow Fleet and Greek Affiliated Ships Lead Strait of Hormuz Transits — Gcaptain