Oil Chokepoints Remain Starved of Traffic
The latest crossing figures underscore just how far shipping activity through both chokepoints remains from pre-conflict norms, with Hormuz traffic in particular a shadow of the flows that once carried a fifth of the world’s crude and gas. Even Friday’s relative high of 19 vessels was still well short of anything resembling normal pre-war throughput, and the further drop to 10 on Saturday reinforces the fragility of any recovery narrative.
Tankers running with AIS switched off point to elevated risk-avoidance behavior among operators, which typically correlates with wider insurance costs and freight premiums. With the Houthi embargo on Saudi Arabia now compounding pre-existing Hormuz disruption, the risk of a prolonged, structurally lower throughput environment across both routes remains the dominant theme for energy traders, regardless of any diplomatic signals coming from Washington.
Bab el-Mandeb Strait Crossings Plummet
Commodity vessel crossings through the Bab el-Mandeb strait fell to 18 on Sunday, down from 27 on Saturday and 28 on Friday, according to Kpler data. The decline follows the Houthis’ declaration of a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia on July 20, which opened a new front against the US and its allies in the Iran war and extended tanker attacks into waters beyond the Gulf.
Two tankers carrying Saudi crude nonetheless exited the Red Sea over the weekend, both with their Automatic Identification Systems switched off, a common tactic among operators seeking to reduce their visibility to attackers. One bound for an undisclosed destination and the other headed to India.
Strait of Hormuz Traffic Remains Stagnant
The picture at the Strait of Hormuz is starker still. Crossings fell to just 10 vessels on Saturday, down from 19 on Friday, a figure that itself represented only the highest daily tally since mid-July. Just one tanker, carrying liquefied petroleum gas loaded in Iran, made the Hormuz crossing on Sunday.
The UK Maritime Trade Operations has reported three further tanker attacks in the strait since Saturday, adding to the risk premium facing operators still willing to run the route. A handful of very large crude carriers did exit or enter the strait on Friday carrying Qatari and Das crude, but the scale of activity remains a fraction of what the chokepoint handled before the war.
Risk-Avoidance Behavior Spreads
Some vessels may have switched off their AIS systems and cannot immediately be accounted for, meaning the true scale of transiting traffic could be marginally understated. Even allowing for that, the broad picture from the data is unambiguous: both chokepoints remain far below the throughput levels seen before the outbreak of the Iran war, with attacks, embargo threats, and operator risk-avoidance combining to create a prolonged period of uncertainty for energy traders.
Original Article: Key oil chokepoints remain starved of traffic. Red Sea, Hormuz tanker traffic stays deeply depressed — Investinglive