Oil Flows Resume Through Strait of Hormuz Amid De Facto Blockade; Tanker Traffic Reaches 60% Pre-Conflict Levels
Oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, effectively blockaded following military clashes between Iran and the United States, are estimated to have recovered to approximately 60% of pre-conflict levels. While factors like tankers operating with Automatic Identification System (AIS) turned off and ship-to-ship transfers likely contributed to maintaining volume, varying data collection methods make it difficult to pinpoint the exact reasons for the recovery.
Hormuz Oil Transit Reaches Post-Conflict High
According to data from European energy intelligence firm Kpler, an estimated average of 9.36 million barrels of oil per day transited the Strait of Hormuz this month. This represents an increase of 3.56 million barrels from August and is about 60% of the 15 million barrels per day transported before military clashes between the U.S. and Iran began. While this marks the highest level since the conflict, other estimates vary depending on the reporting period and scope of products.
Increased AIS-Off Tankers Don’t Fully Explain Volume
The increase in shipping volume is attributed to a rise in tankers operating with their AIS turned off. AIS is a device that automatically transmits a vessel’s position, course, and speed, which international maritime vessels are generally required to operate. However, signals can be temporarily disabled in situations involving safety or security threats, such as attacks or seizures. While disabling location data can reduce the risk of a vessel becoming a target for drone attacks or capture, it does not completely evade tracking using satellite imagery, radar, and port records.
Saudi Arabia and Iraq Continue Exports, Accepting Risk
Saudi Arabia and Iraq are identified as countries increasing exports through Hormuz. While Saudi Arabia had utilized alternative export routes via the Red Sea, it is believed to have diverted some volumes back to Hormuz after related pipelines and infrastructure were attacked. There have also been reports of Saudi national oil company Aramco pursuing spot deals involving crude oil transshipment off the coast of Oman. Ship-to-ship (STS) transfers involve moving oil loaded inside the strait to another vessel outside, used to minimize exposure to high-risk areas.
Oil Prices Stable, But Strait Navigation Not Normalized
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures traded between $91 and $95 per barrel on the 25th. This is approximately 20% lower than the peak of $119 recorded after the military clashes between the U.S. and Iran. Factors such as limited strait transit, use of alternative pipelines, supply from non-Middle Eastern producers, and strategic petroleum reserve releases have partially curbed price surges. However, it is premature to consider the Strait of Hormuz as having returned to normal operations. With some vessels continuing to operate despite military risks and high insurance costs, or utilizing AIS disabling and transshipments, the current recovery in volume is less a lifting of the blockade and more a partial resumption of transport in a high-risk environment.
Original Article: Oil Flows Continue Through Strait of Hormuz Amid De Facto Blockade; Tanker Traffic Resumes : 국제 : JKN — Co