Oil Flows Through Strait of Hormuz Remain Unclear Amid Discrepancies in Estimates
Minas Tsamopoulos August 13 09:56
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The amount of oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz each day has become a critical puzzle for the global energy market, as Washington’s estimates differ substantially from the data collected by companies that track ship movements and cargoes.
U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright maintains that approximately 9 million barrels per day are leaving the Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz. According to him, an additional 5–7 million barrels per day reach international markets via pipelines and other alternative infrastructure.
This estimate suggests that despite the crisis and the sharp decline in commercial shipping traffic, substantial volumes of crude oil continue to leave the Persian Gulf. The available data, however, do not clearly confirm this picture.
Measurements by Kpler, an international energy market analysis and cargo-tracking company, as well as LSEG (London Stock Exchange Group), the global financial data provider, indicate significantly lower oil flows through Hormuz.
According to their estimates, volumes range from about 1.7 million to 7 million barrels per day. The figures vary depending on the period being analyzed, the information available, and the methodology used by each company.
“Invisible” Tankers Contribute to Uncertainty
At the center of the uncertainty is the widespread deactivation of ships’ Automatic Identification System (AIS) transponders. An increasing number of tankers are passing through the region without publicly broadcasting their location, primarily to reduce their exposure to potential attacks.
Without active AIS signals, tracking companies cannot maintain a complete real-time picture. To identify vessels and estimate their cargoes, they rely on satellite imagery, port data, draft measurements, and other commercial information. This process takes time and cannot eliminate all information gaps.
Delays and Course Changes Complicate Estimates
Delays, waiting at secure locations, and course changes can therefore significantly affect daily estimates. A tanker may have departed a Persian Gulf port but not yet passed through the Strait of Hormuz.
The issue becomes even more pronounced when combined with the sharp decline in shipping traffic. On Tuesday, Kpler recorded only eight transits through Hormuz, while LSEG counted eleven. Before the conflict, approximately 130–140 vessels passed through the waterway each day.
The Discrepancy Has Direct Implications
The discrepancy is more than just a technical disagreement between different sources. It has direct implications for estimates of global oil supply, commercial inventories, and crude prices.
If actual flows are close to 9 million barrels per day, Gulf exports are continuing on a much larger scale than visible shipping activity suggests. If, on the other hand, flows are closer to the lower levels reported by Kpler and LSEG, significant quantities of crude oil are failing to reach the market, increasing the risk of tighter supply.
The uncertainty surrounding oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz highlights the challenges in tracking global energy markets during times of crisis. As the situation continues to evolve, it is essential for stakeholders to have accurate information about the volume and direction of oil shipments.
Original Article: How much oil is really passing through, and the role of the “invisible” tankers — Protothema