Tankers Disappear from AIS Data, Ormuz Strait Traffic Remains Unclear
The headlines about the “closure” of the Ormuz Strait are good for imagination, but they may not give up what really happens on this trail. More and more shows that the problem is not just about Iranian transition control. Equally important may be that part of the oil tanker movement simply disappears from the publicly available image.
From a report published by Citrini Research, thesis appears that ships with oil loads are still passing through the Ormuz Strait, but a significant part of this movement can be hidden by falsifying AIS data and limiting the visibility of individuals in public tracking systems.
Parts of Movement Just Can’t Be Seen
The point of the matter is no longer just to ask whether Iran is passing the selected units. Equally important is the market seeing a full scale of traffic in the Strait area. According to the Citrini Research report, about half of the tanker traffic may not be visible in public AIS data.
These mechanisms are also well known for the activities of the tankers operating in the shadow fleet model, where hiding positions, changing the identity of the unit or turning off the AIS are used to celebrate sanctions and blur the actual image of traffic.
Counterfeiting AIS Data Obscures the Real Picture of the Situation
If this mechanism actually works on such a scale, the problem will no longer concern Iran alone. It also begins to concern the quality of data on which a large part of market comments, analyses, and media assessments of the situation are based.
Public vessel tracking systems have been an important tool for shipowners, fuel market analysts, and the media for years. However, if a significant proportion of the units passing through Ormuz fall out of this image, the assessment of the situation by definition becomes incomplete.
Tankers Still Pass Through the Ormuz, but You Don‘t Always See Them in the AIS
However, according to the report’s authors, this does not mean returning to normal freedom of navigation. Their thesis is different: Ormuz is not completely closed today, but is filtered, and the passing of some units is to be decided by the conditions imposed by Iran.
That’s the difference. Full blockade would mean stopping transit. Meanwhile, the movement continues, although some tankers disappear from publicly available data.
The Market Pays for the Lack of Transparency
According to the report’s authors, the market initially valued a full-block scenario, which was to boost Brent’s quotes in the area of $115 per barrel. The subsequent adjustment towards approximately $108 was to result from the belief that the movement did not freeze completely but was limited and partly hidden.
In such a situation, the threat of closing the Strait itself begins to act almost as strongly as the actual restriction of traffic. If market participants are not sure how many ships they are actually going through Ormuz, this uncertainty can destabilize the entire oil trade, insurance costs, and transport rates.
The report also shows that since the start of the war, over $3 billion in oil charges could have passed through the Strait, mainly to Asian customers. This shows that despite tension and interference, the transit did not freeze completely.
Original Article: The Ormuz Strait only seemingly empty. Tankers disappear from AIS data — Portalstoczniowy