Russian Fleet Lurking in the Baltic Sea: Risk of Ecological Disaster and Sabotage
The Russian fleet, a shadowy entity operating outside international maritime standards, poses a significant risk to the environment and global security. According to experts at the Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM), this fleet consists of hundreds of aging tankers, many without proper insurance or maintenance.
The Fleet’s Size and Age
Estimates suggest that the Russian fleet numbers between 600 and 1,600 vessels, depending on the definition used. As of December 2025, TankerTrackers.com reported that there were 1,480 active units in the fleet, with around 600 vessels prior to 2022. The PISM report “Russian Fleet: A Balance of Sanctions” notes that approximately 1,300 ships are currently listed on sanction lists.
The Vessels’ Condition
The condition of individual vessels varies, but all are older than typical tankers, which are designed to operate for around 20 years before being retired. The average age of the Russian fleet‘s tankers is 22 years, compared to a global average of 13.2 years in 2024, according to S&P Global.
The Risk of Catastrophe
Professor Andrzej Makowski from the Academy of Maritime Warfare in Gdynia notes that the Russian fleet‘s vessels are “statistically suspect” and their reliability is significantly lower than those 15-17 years old. The risk of catastrophe is high due to the aging nature of these vessels.
The Dark Fleet
Makowski also highlights the distinction between the “gray fleet” and the “dark fleet.” The gray fleet operates on the fringes of legality, while the dark fleet consists of older, uninsured vessels that often lack a legitimate flag. In some cases, it is unclear whether they have a valid registration.
Russia’s Response to Sanctions
Prior to February 2022, oil and gas exports accounted for 40% of Russia’s budget revenue (80% was from oil and petroleum products, while 20% was from gas). The European Union was the main customer. After sanctions were imposed, the EU’s share of Russian gas imports fell from 40% in 2021 to below 5% in 2025, while oil imports dropped from 25% to 2-3%.
The expansion of the dark fleet is designed to help Russia recover from these losses and limit the effectiveness of sanctions. This move has been met with a response from the G7+ coalition, which has imposed sanctions on vessels belonging to the Russian fleet as well as domestic and foreign entities supporting their activities.
Manipulating Systems
According to Elżbieta Kaca from PISM, Russia is adapting quickly to these restrictions by regularly changing vessel flags, creating opaque ownership structures, and manipulating positioning systems to conceal the origin of oil. Transfers of cargo at sea also effectively erase any trace of deliveries. This entire mechanism supports a network of companies registered in countries such as the UAE, Hong Kong, China, and the Marshall Islands.
Challenges in Combating the Fleet
A significant barrier to combating this fleet is the limited legal framework under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). Countries have limited capabilities for detaining suspected vessels at sea. In practice, this is evident in the fact that 61% of sanctioned tankers have changed flags at least twice, choosing registries from countries such as Cameroon, Sierra Leone, Panama, and Oman.
As a result, the dark fleet can operate almost anonymously, effectively supporting oil exports despite the imposition of sanctions.
Original Article: Rosyjska flota cieni na Bałtyku. Ryzyko katastrofy ekologicznej i sabotażu — Interia (Polish) | View English Translation