The Rise Of The LNG Dark Fleet As A Symptom Of A New Gas Order – Analysis
On 24 February 2022, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine permanently reshaped the geopolitics of natural gas. Moscow’s use of gas as a geopolitical weapon, and the ensuing Western response through sanctions and asset seizures, dismantled the main commercial flow of this commodity and triggered an unprecedented reconfiguration of the global gas market.
The confrontation between Russia and the West has unfolded not only on the battlefield but also in the geoeconomic domain, where energy has become a central arena of competition.[1] The EU and the US have sought to weaken the Russian economy by imposing sanctions and seizing assets belonging to key Russian companies and entities, while Moscow has retaliated by expropriating Western assets under its jurisdiction and developing mechanisms to mitigate the impact of those sanctions.
What is the dark fleet?
Since the introduction of Western sanctions on Russia’s energy exports, the terms ‘shadow’ and ‘dark fleet’[2] have gained prominence to describe the growing number of vessels used to evade trade restrictions. The phenomenon itself is not new: as Western governments imposed economic sanctions on Iran, North Korea and Venezuela, these fleets gradually became an established feature of global maritime trade. Since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, however, their expansion has accelerated dramatically.
Following the introduction of the G7 price cap, around 1,000 crude-oil tankers have joined the dark fleet to transport Russian barrels sold above the US$60 threshold. According to S&P Global, as of 2025, the shadow fleet carrying Russian oil now consists of around 978 tankers, accounting for 18.5% of the world’s entire tanker tonnage.
To trade sanctioned commodities, these countries have established fleets of ships that operate without standard industry insurance, maintain opaque ownership structures, frequently change their names and flag registrations (flag hopping), and generally function outside established maritime regulations. The International Maritime Organisation (IMO) issued the first formal, though non-binding, definition in December 2023, identifying shadow or dark-fleet vessels as those engaged in illegal operations to circumvent sanctions, avoid inspections or conceal their identity through practices such as disabling tracking systems.
Implications of the dark fleet
A useful middle ground definition would describe the dark fleet as consisting of vessels that: (a) trade partially or fully in sanctioned commodities; (b) are owned by relatively unknown companies acting as shell entities; (c) operate with ambiguous or non-transparent insurance coverage; and (d) engage in deceptive and risky navigation practices such as switching off transponders.
Beyond its clear geopolitical implications, primarily related to the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the emergence of the LNG dark fleet has significant systemic consequences for the global gas market. The fragmentation of this market, which had previously experienced a rapid process of convergence in trade and financial flows, technology, regulation and investment, will likely lead to increased uncertainty and volatility.
The potential emergence of a dark fleet of Russian and Chinese liquefied natural gas (LNG) carriers as an indirect consequence of Western sanctions would mark a sharp departure from decades in which the natural gas market, unlike the oil market, operated under strict standards of safety, compliance and transparency. Should this trend materialise, it would confirm the broader process of deglobalisation that the energy sector, like the global economy, is undergoing amid the emergence of a new international order and the systematic weaponisation of interdependence that is taking place as part of great-power rivalry.
This paper examines how Russia is establishing an LNG dark fleet in response to Western sanctions and considers its systemic implications.
Original Article: The Rise Of The LNG Dark Fleet As A Symptom Of A New Gas Order – Analysis — Eurasiareview