Russia’s Oil Revenues Decline Amid Global Market Shifts
In September 2025, Russia‘s oil export revenues decreased by around $0.2 billion to $13.4 billion MoM, according to the October edition of the Russian Oil Tracker by the KSE Institute. This decline was largely attributed to a $0.4 billion drop in oil product revenues to $4.4 billion, which offset an increase in crude exports.
Seaborne oil exports increased by 4.1% MoM, remaining broadly unchanged compared to the same period last year. Tankers with International Group (IG) P&I insurance carried 26% of crude and 81% of oil products. The Russian Oil Tracker report highlights the resilience of Russia‘s oil sector in the face of global market fluctuations.
Refinery Runs and Output
In October 2025, Russian refinery runs dropped by about 800 kb/d over normal levels to 4.6 mb/d due to continued drone attacks. Rosneft, Russia‘s largest producer, reduced processing by 22% from July levels. Several major refineries — including Novo-Ufimsky (complete shutdown), Ryazan (-80%), Volgograd (-58%), and Saratov (-34%) — significantly cut throughput.
The Kirishi refinery, one of Russia‘s key diesel exporters, lowered output by 16% to 185 kb/d. The absence of official confirmation of damages complicates the assessment of their scale and recovery timelines. Despite reduced refinery activity in Russia, the impact on market prices in Europe was limited as global oil supply remained intact.
Market Prices and Trade
Oil product exports fell by 170 kb/d — mainly diesel/gasoil and fuel oil — to the lowest level in a decade (excluding April 2020), while crude oil exports rose by 370 kb/d to the highest level since May 2023. Average diesel and fuel oil prices in Northwest Europe declined by $4.2/bbl and $6.2/bbl, respectively, compared to July levels.
According to KSE Institute estimates, 153 tankers of the Russian shadow fleet carrying crude and oil products departed from Russian ports and engaged in ship-to-ship (STS) transfers in September; 89% of them were older than 15 years. India remained the largest importer of Russian seaborne crude with 1,602 kb/d (42%), while Turkey was the top importer of oil products with 424 kb/d.
Sanctions and Enforcement
As of October 31, 2025, the EU, US, UK, Canada, and New Zealand had sanctioned 610 oil tankers involved in transporting Russian oil. The number of sanctioned vessels that loaded in Russian ports increased by nine MoM to 109, once again highlighting weak enforcement of sanctions.
Projections and Outlook
According to KSE Institute projections, under current price caps and the status quo of sanctions, Russia‘s oil revenues are expected to reach $158 billion in 2025 and $131 billion in 2026 (compared to $189 billion in 2024 and $185 billion in 2023). If Urals and ESPO discounts widen to $30/bbl and $20/bbl, revenues could drop to $149 billion and $67 billion. In a weak enforcement scenario, revenues could instead rise to $162 billion and $146 billion, respectively.
The KSE Institute’s October 2025 Russian Oil Tracker report provides a comprehensive overview of the current state of Russia‘s oil sector and its implications for global markets.
Original Article: KSE Russian Oil Tracker: Russia’s Oil Revenues Decline, Crude Trades Above Price Cap — Kyivpost