Russia’s Shadow Fleet Evolves Amid Sanctions
More than two and a half months have passed since the British Navy seized a tanker with Russian oil in the English Channel. Since then, a significant change has taken place in the export of raw materials from Russia. This shift was noticed by Western analysts.
According to Windward, a maritime company, not a single tanker with a false flag has loaded Russian oil over the past two months. This development marks an obvious change in the Kremlin’s strategy to prevent the seizure of ships by Ukraine’s allies. The company believes that Russia is changing its tactics regarding the shadow fleet to block the seizure of tankers traveling along the shores of the EU.
Shadow Fleet Tactics Shift
In mid-June, the British Navy seized the Smyrtos tanker in the English Channel and now the British authorities are trying to prove that the ship was sailing under a false flag — Cameroon. Previously, almost all seizures of vessels with Russian oil were directed against tankers that might not have a flag. Maritime law allows for the inspection of such vessels, which were seized upon in EU countries seeking to reduce Russia‘s revenues from oil exports.
AIS Data Reveals Changes
Judging by the AIS data of ships and Equasis, there are several dozen tankers without a flag involved in the transportation of Russian oil, accounting for no more than 5% of the attracted shadow fleet. Now all tankers under sanctions are referred to as such in the West, including even new vessels from Sovcomflot.
Why Vessels Without Flags Were Not Registered Earlier
The reason why owners of vessels without flags did not register tankers earlier, which made up the majority of the so-called shadow fleet, is unknown. However, it is known that the situation with tankers without a flag is not the only change in Russia‘s maritime exports.
Russian Register Sees Increased Activity
Windward also noted that more and more vessels are being transferred to the Russian register. Previously, even Russian shipowners were in no hurry to do this due to higher costs.
Baltic Ports Exports Change Routes
Exports from Baltic ports are changing routes. So, vessels under sanctions now bypass the UK from the north or go along the Northern Sea Route. At the same time, vessels without sanctions or those that have crossed the Russian flag continue to cross the English Channel. Their passage can be guarded by Russian ships.
New System Emerges
Thus, a new system is being built in which it becomes increasingly difficult for Europeans to physically stop a tanker, even if they know that it is transporting Russian oil, according to Windward.
Original Article: Russia took up the shadow fleet: instead of threats, they got down to business — EADaily, September 8th, 2026 — Politics, Russia — Eadaily