Russia’s Sanctions Last Resort: Shadow Fleet Grows to 600 Vessels, World Bank Reports
As a result of widespread sanctions from Western powers, many of which focus on reducing the amount of oil and gas (O&G) the EU imports from Russia, Moscow has had to resort to new ways of selling its gas to member states. Since the start of the war in Ukraine, Russia has been building up a so-called shadow fleet, not only allowing it to evade regulations but also fueling Vladimir Putin’s invasion.
The term “shadow fleet” regularly appears in the media to describe Moscow’s latest weapon of its hybrid war against the West. Most ships will be recognized by radars and high-end technology, and could therefore be easily intercepted, but Moscow has begun to utilize a loophole by using old ships long past their expected retirement age. These ships are not officially registered by the EU’s port authorities, fly under other nation’s flags, are often uninsured, and are virtually untraceable, allowing them to secretly transport sanctioned oil from Russia through the Baltic Sea and the Mediterranean.
Shadow Fleet Operations: A Legal Grey Zone
The shadow fleet operates in a legal grey zone, causing doubts on EU countries as to how they should be handled if the ships cannot be identified as Russian owned and operated. On May 21, Polish authorities spotted an unidentified vessel in the Baltic Sea, operating between Sweden and Poland. The National Intelligence raised concerns that Russia may have stationed the ship in the area to sabotage a power cable connecting the two countries, an event that has fractured telecommunication links and gas pipelines various times since the full-scale invasion in 2022.
The ship was deterred by Polish forces and was identified as the Sun, sailing under the Antigua flag. Despite this, Reuters reported that the ship is widely suspected to be part of the Russian Shadow Fleet, something Moscow declined to comment on but has previously denied involvement in undersea sabotage.
Price Cap Failure: Russia’s Revenue Takes a Hit
Since 2022, the G7 has imposed a price cap on Russian gas, causing lower revenue for Russia from its sales on gas exports. It was initially set at $60 for the barrel, which was lowered to $45 in the European Union last week. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy requested a further price decrease to $30, though this remains a pending negotiation. Price caps ensure that Russia gets less funds from its exports, while keeping the global supply of oil afloat.
This type of operation by Russia has been often referred to as a “hybrid war”, with instances of cables being cut in the Baltic Sea, oil tankers shipping Russian gas sold at higher than permitted prices and espionage activities being reported. More recently, Russia has resorted to this same tactic in the Southern Front, more precisely in the strait between Greece and Cyprus.
EU’s Sanctions Package: A Response to the Shadow Fleet
The Main Directorate of Intelligence (HRU) has identified another tanker involved in ship-to-ship oil transfers, which constitutes another violation of the imposed sanctions. The HRU revealed that these were done offshore, leading to an evasion of regular legal procedures required at European ports. Such procedures often disable automatic identification systems (AIS), and in some cases, may even require the falsification of the ship’s legal documents.
In this report, the receivers were revealed to be ships under Greek registration, but Russian ships are registered under a number of European nations. The Ukrainian Intelligence believes that about another 500 Shadow Fleet ships are to be found in European waters, while around 150 are estimated to be directly involved in the evasion of sanctions. The EU has tried to fight back against it, with the sanctions package in May addressing the ship-to-ship transfers, but this may prove to be insufficient.
Final Thought: The EU must tighten its grip, or face an ironic consequence.
Original Article: Shadow Fleet: Russia’s Sanctions Last Resort — Politicsuk