War Has Changed Tehran. Washington Should Take Notice.
The war between the United States and Iran persists in a dangerous strategic stalemate. As Washington maintains a punishing economic and maritime blockade, Tehran continues to restrict passage through the Strait of Hormuz, imposing mounting costs on the United States, its allies, and the global economy. Neither side appears prepared to concede.
Iran is not on the verge of collapse; on the contrary, its leaders are now committed to match escalation with escalation until securing a negotiated settlement based on mutual concessions. The wars of 2025 and 2026 accelerated a fundamental shift in Tehran’s strategic thinking, away from years of relative restraint and towards a determination to impose sustained costs on the United States and its allies.
Washington Appears Misread
Washington appears to be continuing to misread the Iran it is confronting. Iranian leaders increasingly believe that their earlier restraint invited further attacks rather than deterring them, and that absorbing more punishment without retaliating forcefully would only encourage additional aggression. A failure to understand this changed posture makes another round of American or Israeli strikes particularly dangerous: rather than compelling Iran to surrender, it would likely provoke an even more damaging Iranian response.
Tehran’s growing willingness to escalate does not mean it has abandoned diplomacy. The challenge for Trump is that the Iran emerging from this war is one less willing to yield to coercion, which remains open to a settlement based on meaningful reciprocal concessions.
Washington’s Options—and Their Limits
The central question is whether Washington is preparing to break the stalemate militarily. But as Carl von Clausewitz famously argued, war is a continuation of politics by other means. Whether Trump chooses to escalate therefore depends on his assessment of the political objectives at stake and whether further military force can advance them.
The buildup of American forces alone tells us little about that calculation, particularly after months of warfare and economic coercion have failed to compel Tehran to yield. How Washington perceives the war will determine what it believes it can do to break the current stalemate. If Washington sees continued economic hardship as eventually forcing Tehran to accept its demands, it can maintain the blockade and continue the war of attrition.
Further Attacks Would Backfire
Further attacks are likely to backfire, particularly given Tehran’s growing conviction that restraint has only invited further aggression. Iran has considerable scope to intensify its own pressure through Hormuz and strikes on regional energy infrastructure, driving up oil prices more, further disrupting global supply chains, and imposing additional costs on the United States and its allies.
Washington’s Options—and Their Limits
Original Article: War Has Changed Tehran. Washington Should Take Notice. — Internationalpolicy