Shadow Fleet Sanctions Efficacy Fades Under Current Administration
In recent years, the United States has been at the forefront of imposing sanctions on Russian shadow fleet oil tankers, with a significant impact on their activity. However, under the current administration, this trend appears to be reversing, and the efficacy of these sanctions is dwindling.
The threat of U.S. secondary sanctions has historically been a key factor in disrupting shadow fleet activity. This fear factor has been particularly effective in deterring entities from conducting business with sanctioned vessels. However, as the current administration’s reluctance to actively enforce these sanctions becomes more apparent, this fear factor is slowly fading away.
Sanctions Enforcement Lacking
The lack of enforcement of U.S. secondary sanctions is a significant concern. The threat of these sanctions must be credible for them to remain effective in deterring entities from engaging with sanctioned vessels. Unfortunately, the current administration’s failure to actively enforce these sanctions has undermined their credibility and effectiveness.
As a result, the number of ships sanctioned by the U.S. has remained stagnant since January 2025, with only 15 new additions to the list. In contrast, the EU and UK have continued to impose sanctions on shadow fleet vessels, with the EU sanctioning an additional 671 ships in July alone.
Sanctions Overlap Increases
The increased overlap between EU, UK, and U.S. sanctions is a positive development. The number of ships sanctioned by all three jurisdictions has risen to 178, while the number of ships sanctioned only by the U.S. has fallen to 15. This trend suggests that the combined efforts of these countries are having a greater impact on disrupting shadow fleet activity.
Fading Sanctions Efficacy
The data from Bloomberg’s AHOY database provides insight into the effectiveness of U.S. sanctions. Figure 3 tracks monthly volumes of crude and refined product shipped out of Russia’s ports on vessels sanctioned by the U.S. The data shows a significant decline in exports since the start of 2025, with average monthly volumes falling to 7 million barrels.
The impact of U.S. sanctions has been greatest on ships operating in the Pacific, which is where the majority of the sanctioned vessels were targeted in the final days of the Biden administration. However, as the current administration’s reluctance to enforce these sanctions becomes more apparent, this trend appears to be reversing, and the efficacy of these sanctions is fading away.
In conclusion, the effectiveness of U.S. shadow fleet sanctions has declined significantly under the current administration. The lack of enforcement of secondary sanctions has undermined their credibility and effectiveness, allowing shadow fleet activity to continue unabated. To reverse this trend, the United States must actively enforce its sanctions and work with other countries to impose a unified approach to disrupting shadow fleet activity.
Original Article: The fading efficacy of US shadow fleet sanctions — Brookings