India’s Energy Security Under Pressure as US Tariffs Loom
The US House of Representatives’ approval of a bill allowing tariffs of up to 100% on countries buying Russian crude has put India’s energy strategy and export access to the American market under fresh pressure. The immediate question is not whether India can find oil elsewhere, but how much economic and geopolitical leverage Washington can exercise over a country whose Russian supplies have become central to its energy security.
The Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026 was approved by the House by 262 votes to 159. The legislation, which must still go to President Donald Trump for his signature, is aimed at Russia’s energy and defence sectors and the “shadow fleet” of tankers used to circumvent existing sanctions. It also expands sanctions on Iran and gives the US President the power to impose tariffs of up to 100% on countries that buy Russian crude in significant quantities.
That wording matters. The bill does not itself impose a 100% tariff on India. It creates the authority to do so, while the decision on the rate, product coverage, and implementation timetable remains with the US administration. The distinction separates a legislative threat from an operational trade measure, but the new authority could still affect how Indian refiners, exporters, and policymakers assess the future cost of Russian oil.
India’s Exposure to Russian Crude Grows Sharply
India’s exposure has grown sharply since the Russia-Ukraine war changed the global oil trade. Before 2022, Russian crude formed a negligible part of India’s imports. European sanctions and the resulting availability of Russian oil at deep discounts changed that calculation. Russia became India’s largest crude supplier, with its share rising to more than 30% of total crude supplies by the end of 2025.
According to data cited from the Global Trade Research Initiative, Russia accounted for 30.3% of India’s crude oil imports in FY2026. The supplies were valued at $40.8 billion out of total crude imports worth $134.7 billion. The report also says Russian supplies accounted for more than half of India’s imported oil in July 2026, as disruptions in the Middle East altered the availability and cost of alternative sources.
Concentration of Supplies Raises Concerns
The July comparison illustrates the concentration. The United Arab Emirates accounted for 10.8% of India’s imports, Saudi Arabia for 9.6%, Venezuela for 6.3%, Brazil for 5.5%, Oman for 5.3%, and the United States for 2.9%. Russia alone supplied more crude than those six countries combined, according to the figures cited by the report.
This is why the issue cannot be reduced to a dispute over one supplier. Crude oil is a foundational input for transport, manufacturing, power generation, and household consumption. A sharp change in procurement costs can travel through the economy even when the immediate policy is directed at refiners or importers. For India, the availability of discounted Russian crude has also provided a hedge against supply disruptions in other producing regions.
Diversification Efforts Face Challenges
The present dependence has deepened as Middle East supplies have come under pressure. The report says the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked and that attacks by the Houthis on a key Saudi pipeline have affected alternative supplies. India’s procurement is spread across more than 40 countries, but Russia and Middle Eastern producers remain the mainstays of its oil security strategy. Diversification therefore exists, but it does not mean that every supplier can quickly replace the volumes, price, and logistical reliability offered by another.
The legislation’s potential impact on India operates through two separate channels. The first is the oil market. If tariffs or sanctions make Russian crude more expensive or difficult to ship, insure, or pay for, Indian refiners could face higher procurement costs and more complex supply arrangements. The second is trade. A punitive tariff on Indian exports to the US could reduce the competitiveness of Indian goods in an important market, although the eventual effect would depend on various factors, including the magnitude of the tariff and India’s ability to adapt its export strategy.
Original Article: Russian Crude Oil Puts India’s US Trade at Risk — Urbanacres