VLCC Delivery Wave Set to Reach Levels Not Seen Since the 1970s
The global very large crude carrier (VLCC) market is heading toward its biggest wave of new vessel deliveries in more than 50 years, with over 100 supertankers expected to enter service annually in both 2028 and 2029, according to shipping industry estimates reported by Splash247.
The projected expansion would bring VLCC deliveries close to levels last seen during the supertanker boom of the 1970s. Historical data from BIMCO shows that a record 116 VLCCs were delivered in 1974. More recently, the 68 vessels delivered in 2019 marked a four-decade high.
Concerns Over Imbalance Between Vessel Supply and Demand
The comparison with the 1970s raises concerns about a potential imbalance between vessel supply and demand. During that period, a surge in tanker orders coincided with the 1973 oil crisis, which severely disrupted global oil consumption and trade.
According to UNCTAD, global oil trade contracted by 23% between 1974 and 1975, while tanker carrying capacity increased by nearly 16%. Freight rates collapsed, and the reopening of the Suez Canal in 1975 further reduced shipping distances.
By the end of 1975, 573 tankers representing 47.8 million deadweight tonnes (dwt) had been laid up, according to INTERTANKO. Many shipowners faced severe financial difficulties, with newly delivered vessels entering lay-up almost immediately as the tanker market experienced a prolonged downturn.
VLCC Orderbook Points to Sharp Increase in Deliveries
Current market estimates indicate that approximately 319 VLCCs are on order, equivalent to 34% of the existing fleet. That proportion rises to 42% when vessels subject to sanctions are excluded from the fleet calculation.
The immediate delivery schedule remains relatively limited, however. Only 20 VLCCs are expected to enter service over the next six months, following just six deliveries in 2025 and one in 2024.
The orderbook becomes considerably more concentrated toward the end of the decade. Of the 319 vessels on order, 138 are scheduled for delivery in 2029 or later.
Other shipping industry assessments point to an even larger orderbook of 351 VLCCs, including 283 vessels scheduled for delivery from 2028 onward. Although the estimates differ, both indicate a substantial increase in fleet capacity over the coming years.
Fleet Renewal and Scrapping Challenges
The central question is whether the incoming vessels will expand the global tanker fleet beyond market requirements or primarily replace ageing ships.
Industry estimates suggest that approximately 47% of the existing VLCC fleet is at least 15 years old, creating considerable potential demand for fleet renewal.
Some financial market analysts expect much of the new tonnage to replace older vessels rather than contribute directly to fleet expansion. Under this scenario, tanker freight rates could decline more gradually than anticipated, potentially extending the current market cycle beyond 2029.
Limited scrapping and high vessel prices complicate fleet renewal. Shipping market data cited by Splash247 indicates that only four VLCCs were demolished during the first nine months of 2026, despite 172 new vessel orders placed over the same period.
Strong freight earnings have also pushed secondhand tanker values to unusually high levels. Recent market valuations cited in the report put the price of a 15-year-old VLCC at approximately $165 million, compared with around $131.5 million for a newly ordered vessel.
The premium reflects the immediate availability of existing ships at a time when newbuilding delivery slots are limited and tanker earnings remain elevated.
These conditions are encouraging owners to keep older vessels in service, potentially delaying the fleet renewal that would otherwise offset incoming deliveries.
Industry Forecasts Point to Net VLCC Fleet Growth
Industry forecasts point to net VLCC fleet growth of approximately 4% in 2026 and 5.7% in 2027, following growth of just 0.2% in 2025.
At the same time, seaborne crude oil trade is expected to continue its steady expansion, further straining the global tanker market.
Original Article: VLCC delivery wave set to reach levels not seen since the 1970s — Datamarnews