Baltic Sea Tensions Rise as Russia’s ‘Shadow Fleet’ Threatens Western Trade
In the Baltic Sea, the real war is what you cannot see.
Johan-Elias Seljamaa grips the controls tightly, trying to steady himself on the bridge of the Sakala. Heavy waves roll through the Gulf of Finland; the Estonian Navy minesweeper keeps lurching upwards and then crashing down again, rising and falling for a whole hour. Finally, Captain Seljamaa reaches the East-West channel, the main traffic artery: to the East lies the Russian metropolis of St. Petersburg, far to the West lies the gateway to the North Sea and, from there, to the global market.
For most Germans, the Baltic Sea means vacation: a sparkling playground, a sailing paradise, a place associated with beach chairs, ice cream, and sunburn. But the Baltic is becoming something very different. Here, NATO and Russian interests collide more and more — politically, economically, and militarily. Ever since Russia invaded Ukraine, the 400,000-square-kilometer sea has become an area of rising tension, the stage for a hybrid conflict that could flare up at any time.
Estlink 2 Cable Attack: A Wake-Up Call
On Christmas Day 2023, the oil tanker Eagle S, carrying 35,000 tons of gasoline from Russia, dropped anchor here in the Gulf of Finland, moved forward, and damaged the Estlink 2 cable, barely a few centimeters thick. Shortly afterward, the Finnish Coast Guard stopped the Eagle S, escorted it to port, and impounded the ship, which sails under the flag of the South Pacific Cook Islands. Later, the Eagle S‘s anchor was recovered from the seabed.
Seljamaa shrugs as he talks about the incident. “In all my years at sea, I have never experienced anything like this.” He pauses before adding, “When your anchor falls into the water, you notice it.”
NATO’s Response: Quick Action Against Suspected Russian-Backed Attacks
The Finns’ tough response is part of a broader strategy that emphasizes quick action against suspected Russian-backed attacks on infrastructure. Former Finnish President Sauli Niinistö drafted a report on civil and military resilience specifically for the EU. Speaking to Die Zeit in an interview, the former head of state said: “In Finland, the military and private sector work hand in hand. Every one of us is a defender of our country.”
Critical Systems, Largely Unprotected
The situation in the Baltic is “tense,” says German Rear Admiral Stephan Haisch, who monitors the region for NATO. Every ship moving through these waters could pose a threat. And it is not just a matter of cut power lines or severed internet cables on the seabed.
What if a fully loaded tanker catches fire off the Bay of Kiel and blocks the channel? Or what if a Russian warship, disguised as a civilian vessel, slips through the defenses and reaches the North Sea? The consequences would be catastrophic.
Original Article: How Russia’s “Shadow Fleet” In The Baltic Can Sabotage Western Trade — And Spread War Into NATO — Worldcrunch