European Union’s 18th Sanctions Package Intensifies Shipping Risk and Compliance Complexity
The European Union’s 18th sanctions package on Russia recalibrates global oil trades once again and intensifies shipping risk and compliance complexity across the maritime domain. Western sanctions have already bifurcated global trade, with enforcement diverging between the EU, UK, and US.
Expansion of Dark Fleet Sanctions
105 new vessels were added to the EU sanctions list, which bans access to EU ports. These tankers are part of the broader “dark fleet” used to evade the oil price cap through deceptive shipping practices such as flag hopping and the use of fraudulent registries, AIS manipulation, and deliberately complex ownership and management structures.
More than 440 tankers are now sanctioned by the EU. 100% of the newly sanctioned vessels were flagged as risky by Windward prior to their designation, mostly due to port calls in sanctioned regimes, dark activity, Location (GNSS) Manipulation, illicit ship-to-ship transfers, and suspicious cargo indicators. 96% were classified as part of the dark fleet, and none as ‘gray fleet’, meaning all were trading with other sanctioned jurisdictions, as well as Russia.
Gabon and Comoros Ship Registries Targeted
UAE-based Intershipping Services LLC, operator of the Gabon and Comoros ship registries, was listed for flagging ships that allowed opaque and high-risk transport of Russian oil. The company runs Comoros’ registry through its India office. Intershipping is now subject to asset freezes and funding bans across the EU.
As per Windward Maritime AI™ data, 146 of the nearly 1,200 ships flagged to these registries are linked to EU or UK companies, further complicating their maritime compliance. Comoros has continued to flag Western-sanctioned vessels, even as other registries serving Russian oil and shipping have moved to delist such ships.
Revised Oil Price Cap: Is a Tonnage Crisis Looming?
A new dynamic price cap of $47.60 per barrel will take effect on September 3, 2025. This measure is expected to trigger an immediate and significant reshuffling of Russia’s tanker market share. More than 40% of Russian oil was legally shipped on Greek-owned ships last month, as Urals crude averaged below the $60/bbl cap for a fifth consecutive month.
Greek owned ships also dominate exports of Russian diesel, whose price has remained well below the $100/bbl price for refined products for more than 12 months. The cap for refined products as well as $45/bbl for fuel oil remains in place. Unless Russian oil companies agree to sell at lower prices, these Greek-owned tankers will now exit crude trades, with uncertainty over how this gap will be plugged.
Hundreds of possible replacement tankers remain sanctioned by the EU, UK or US. This will test whether ports at importing countries will allow EU-sanctioned vessels to dock and offload their cargo, potentially leading to a tonnage crisis in the global oil trade.
Conclusion
The EU’s latest sanctions package not only complicates shipping logistics but also raises questions about the future of global oil trade dynamics. Stakeholders must adapt quickly to navigate this evolving landscape.
Original Article: Unprecedented Maritime Compliance Challenges Emerge from EU’s 18th Sanctions Package — Windward