Russia‘s Economy in Crisis as War Enters Fourth Year
The war in Ukraine, which pits Moscow against Kiev, has entered its fourth year, and Russia‘s economy is reeling from the consequences.
In the early hours of February 24, 2022, the world witnessed what many analysts deemed impossible: a boots-on-the-ground invasion by Russia, the second-largest country in Europe. However, this strategic miscalculation has proven to be one of historic proportions. According to research conducted by the Royal United Services Institute, Russian military planners expected to gain control over Ukraine within a mere ten days.
This “Special Military Operation” was supposed to mirror the rapid and low-cost successes achieved in Georgia in 2008 or Crimea in 2014. Instead, more than 1,450 days into the conflict, Russia finds itself stuck in a grinding war that has shattered the myth of its invincible military forces and exposed the fragility of its intelligence assumptions.
Human Toll Exceeds Any Post-War Conflict
The human cost has been meticulously concealed by Moscow’s propaganda machine, but independent data paints a apocalyptic picture. The Center for Strategic and International Studies estimates that the number of Russians killed or wounded since the invasion began has reached 1.2 million people – a figure surpassing any major power in every war fought after World War II. Over the past four years, approximately 325,000 Russian soldiers have lost their lives, a triple-digit increase compared to the total losses suffered by the United States in all conflicts from 1945 to today.
Ukrainian Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov recently stated, “If we reach the monthly toll of 50,000 enemy casualties, we’ll see what happens; they view people as a resource, but the shortage is already evident.” The Ukrainian front also pays a steep price, with estimates ranging from 500,000 to 600,000 total losses.
Structural Distortions and Economy of War
Although Russia has risen to ninth place among global economies in 2025 according to the International Monetary Fund, surpassing Canada and Brazil, this growth is fueled by massive military spending, creating deep imbalances. Economists speak of an overheating phenomenon caused by industrial reconversion.
Elvira Nabiullina, Governor of the Russian Central Bank, has expressed concern over galloping inflation and labor shortages. The Nezavisimaya Gazeta daily newspaper has reported a “grave labor shortage,” estimating the immediate need for 800,000 specialized workers who are either conscripted or employed in munitions factories.
Economist Sergei Guriev has highlighted how Russia‘s economy is becoming a de facto “command economy,” where GDP growth is driven by the production of tanks destroyed at the front, without generating real value for citizens.
Geopolitical Isolation and Decline of Global Influence
On the international stage, the invasion has produced the opposite of what Moscow had intended. Instead of halting NATO expansion, Russia has pushed Finland and Sweden into the alliance‘s arms, doubling its land border with member states. Moreover, Russia has become a junior partner to the People’s Republic of China.
A report by the Center for European Policy Analysis states categorically: “The relationship is unbalanced because Moscow depends on Beijing.”
Original Article: Russia, i 14 punti chiave del disastro di Putin (e del declino di Mosca). Economia, soldati morti: i quattro anni di guerra in Ucraina — Ilmessaggero (Italian) | View English Translation